2018 Fantasy Football Gold

Goal: Predict 10 players that will rise above their pre-season rankings. “Sleepers” is not necessarily the term I’d use, but rather “players to target”.

Success: If 7/10 of these predications are correct, I would consider this post successful. If I fail to achieve this objective, then it is likely that these words will be read by no one. (That won’t happen)

Vamos.

*All opinions are my own.*

Uno: Derrick Henry (RB)

• He is now entering his third season and has gradually improved while waiting under the wings of DeMarco Murray (who has actually had a very solid career and was likely a fine mentor).
• He is clearrrrrrrly the red zone back. Murray presented some competition at the goal line last year since he has a sizable frame. But Henry is a beast and should be the go-to goal line back (aside from pass plays).
• I’ve never been and likely never will go to a Titans practice. Neither have I watched many Titans games. So I can’t comment about his pass protection, though I’ve seen posts about this aspect of his game being sub-par. While this may be true, I trust that another year of experience will help him improve from last year. My biased self thinks this criticism is questionable.
• HE’S THE LEAD BACK ON A TEAM THAT IS GOING TO RUN THE BALL CONSISTENTLY. VOLUME. Lewis is an unknown which I don’t love, but I have faith that a stud RB in his third year who finally grasped the starting job will not relent. Target him in every draft. You can find a starting caliber RB2 in round 4/5. Sounds like a no brainer to me.

Dos: Tyler Lockett (WR)

• He was the fourth option last year and showed flashes of brilliance.
• He is now entering his fourth season (primetime for a jump) as the number two option on a Russell Wilson-led offense. No Graham. No Richardson. Hello targets.
• Doug Baldwin is supposedly hampered by a knee issue which may or may not last throughout the whole season. If his knee issue even effects his game slightly, it makes sense that his targets may decrease as a result.
• Even if Baldwin is fully healthy (which…again he supposedly is not), Lockett would still see a healthy volume of targets. His ADP was hovering around 150 last I saw. Target him late, get rewarded with a Flex/WR3 (maybe even WR2 depending on Baldwin’s health). No brainer. Got him in every draft.

Tres: Matt Ryan (QB)

• Wasn’t he the MVP two years ago?
• He had a “down” season the year after he won the MVP. Have we seen this before?
• Oh yeah, he also had new OC and system last year. The more experience the better.
• He still has Julio Jones
• He still has stud RBs
• His WR3 (Calvin Ridley) was one of the best receivers in this draft class and has legitimate speed.
• You can scoop him in round 10 and grab yourself a QB1 who I will predict will be a top 6 (cannot sell myself to say 5 just yet) QB.
• ……please do it

Cuatro: Marcus Mariota (QB)

• Mariota can easily be found past the 10th round in most leagues. Scoop him up. Why the hell not. He’s entering his fourth season (why would he not improve) with a new OC that comes from the Sean McVay school (who created a juggernaut Rams offense).
• His WR1 was a rookie last year (Corey Davis, 5th overall pick) and battled some injuries. He still has a quality TE in Delanie Walker. Rishard Matthews is a fine WR2. He has a solid line. He has a mammoth he can hand the ball off to and a shifty RB2 to throw to.
• Oh yeah, he can also run the ball and rack up yards on the ground. Maybe the best part of his game.
• Worst comes to worse you lose an 11th rounder for a QB2. Best, you draft a QB1 and don’t waste an earlier pick on one. I’m all in.

Cinco: Marshawn Lynch (RB)

• Am I the only one who has watched Jon Gruden talk about Lynch. If the Raiders were even brought up on MNF, Gruden would salivate at the thought of handing the ball off to Lynch.
• I’ll admit his age is a bit of a concern. But he did have an entire season off to rest in 2016. Maybe that’ll provide him with one last season of dominance (or at least, semi-dominance).
• He is the clear cut RB1 on this team and the goal line back (cough, volume). Carr will improve and is now healthy. No loading the box anymore. Gruden will not be able to resist his truck-like fame. Grab him late and scoop up a RB2. Happy trucking.

Seis: Amari Cooper (WR)

• I’m probably not the only one targeting Cooper, but I couldn’t leave him off. Again, Carr is healthy and will undoubtedly improve (wasn’t he an MVP candidate two years ago?)
• No more Crabtree……his biggest competition for targets…is gone. I actually like his replacement (Jordy Nelson) as a complement, but Nelson had 0 experience with Carr. Even if Jordy does have a solid year, I don’t imagine him eating into Cooper’s targets too significantly. Cooper is still the WR1 and has a established connection with his QB (volume). He’s also entering his fourth season and there is no reason he should not improve. Love me those bounce-back seasons.

Siete: Royce Freeman (RB)

• This is the 2018 Kareem Hunt (barring injury)
• This is the 2018 Kareem Hunt (barring injury)
• This is the 2018 Kareem Hunt (barring injury)
• VOLUME

Ocho: Julian Edelman (WR)

• You can find him deeeeep in the draft. So what if he’s suspended for 4 games. If you’re good enough to survive four games without him (which you should be since he’s realistically only your 7th ish pick) then you may have just scooped up a stud WR2 with WR1 upside.
• He’s Brady’s favorite target (volume). The risk of his injury still lingering does not even come close to outweighing the potential benefit of drafting him. The suspension gives him an additional month to heal.
• Imagine the Edelman of 2016 (or a close version of that) as your Flex during the playoffs. (*Spongebob humana humana humana clip*)

Nueve: Marquise Goodwin (WR)

• Don’t have as much faith in this pick as the others, but I’m still high on Goodwin. Last year, he was an absolute beast when playing with Jimmy G and had multiple games over 100 yards during that stretch (*google.com is the place to be for his exact stats*).
• Don’t love the competition with Garcon for targets, but he still seems slated as the WR1 and again was the primary WR last year.
• A half season and an entire offseason to work with Jimmy G and establish a better connection. Unless Jimmy regresses from last year (which is possible, but just as likely that he improves now that he enters the season as the unquestionable starting QB for the first time) there is no reason Goodwin should be anything but better.
• Oh yeah, he has a stud offensive HC in Kyle Shanahan
• I’m comfortable making him my WR2 with a solid duo of RBs as the reward. There is risk, but think he is easily worth the ADP and should be better (at least slightly) than his pre-eason ranking.

Diez: David Njoku (TE)

• I don’t love drafting players with rookie QBs. I thought this prediction would be a lock entering the season, but Taylor’s injury hampered those expectations a bit. However, I still have confidence that he will outperform his ADP and serve as a quality starting TE.
• While he does have a rookie QB, we are talking about the first pick of the draft. So, there is every reason to believe Njoku’s QB situation has improved from last year (it has). Why would Njoku not also improve?
• Don’t forget he was a rookie last year. Another year of experience for a mammoth TE who has a solid first year should = improvement (don’t even think about saying the two s words).
• Wait on a TE and take him late. Trust Baker more than I do? Take him even earlier. Regardless, a starting TE1 awaits.

Honorable Mention: Chris Carson (RB)

• Couldn’t resist. Prior to his injury last year, he took over the RB1 job and had some quality performances. Seemed to gain Pete Carroll’s trust in the process. Now healthy, why would he not be able to return to that level, considering he was just a rookie last year?
• The Seahawks had an atrocious line last year and Carson still performed well pre-injury. Even a slight line improvement from last year should serve to greatly benefit Carson.
• Rashaad Penny prevents me from having tooooo high of expectations (volume). It can’t be denied that the Seahawks are going to utilize their first round pick (exactly why Carson is my honorable mention). Then again, Derrick Henry’s rookie season did not even make a dent into DeMarco Murray’s success….
• I am predicting that the majority of carries will go to Carson. He is the RB1 right now after all. Who the goal line back will be is a question I cannot confidently answer, which is another reason why I’m still slightly cautious about Carson yet still targeting him.
• Though he presents more risks than the others on this list, you can still draft an RB2 fairly late. Reward outweighs the risk.

 

Best of luck this season. I hope it goes (or went) well and that this post will provide you with the motivation to read my future articles. Thanks for reading!

-Merola